Welcome to The Signal, Box Score's Wednesday newsletter. This week, we're looking at the state of US men's tennis. Why can’t the country of Ashe, McEnroe, Agassi and Sampras win men’s grand slams anymore? And could this year’s US Open be the start of a new chapter?
The tennis stars may be aligning during the 2026 US Open, which could lead to the end of the longest drought in American men’s tennis history.
Not since Andy Roddick defeated Juan Carlos Ferrero on Sept. 7, 2003, has an American male won the US Open. It has been 23 years of futility ever since. However, that could change during the fortnight at Flushing Meadows in New York City.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, a five-time Grand Slam champion, is out with a knee injury. Seven-time major champion Carlos Alcaraz is just back after right wrist surgery. And Novak Djokovic, holder of a men’s record 24 major titles, lost this past Sunday to the unheralded Mariano Navone in a first-round shocker that saw the 39-year-old Serbian cramping, vomiting and crying on court.
The door is open for an American man to hold aloft that silver Tiffany trophy on Sept. 13. Six US men are seeded — more Americans than at any US Open since tennis went to 32 seeds, up from 16, in 2001. Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, and Frances Tiafoe bring the most experience on the US Open stage, and are capable of beating anyone in the field. Learner Tien, Brandon Nakashima and Tommy Paul can make deep runs if their games peak at the right time.
Such depth gives the US Tennis Association something to crow about. But the current crop of US players cannot be compared to America’s legendary US Open men’s champions — Roddick, Arthur Ashe, Stan Smith, Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi.
The United States once produced men who became Hall of Famers, not mere contenders. The change can be traced to the high cost of learning to play and an increasing lack of opportunities for men to play college tennis.
Many US tennis academies cost in the range of $60,000-$100,000 per year, per child — and not all of them offer academic schooling. That’s far beyond what most families can afford. It’s impossible for this pay-to-play model to attract the widest pool of potential talent.
The US needs more teaching facilities like XS Tennis Village on Chicago’s South Side. It’s run by former tour pro Kamau Murray, who coached Sloane Stephens to the 2017 US Open women’s title. XS offers youth tennis instruction for under $6,000 a year.
Meanwhile, college tennis has become a difficult place to learn and grow, even for families of financial means. According to 3tennis.org, men’s tennis is the most international of all the major NCAA sports. Players born outside the US make up more than 70 percent of college rosters. When Virginia beat Texas for the 2026 NCAA men’s title, Virginia included players from Spain, Canada, Romania, South Korea and Switzerland. Texas included players from Germany, Sweden, France, the Netherlands, Estonia and North Macedonia.
College tennis coaches face the same pressure to win as coaches in higher-profile sports like football and basketball, says former tour pro Scoville Jenkins, associate head coach of men’s tennis at Oklahoma State.
Academies in other countries have proven superior in grooming youngsters to become varsity players here and future pro stars.
The French tennis federation has been known to spend up to three years funding a coach who works with a player of limited financial means. From such humble beginnings came Gael Monfils, the world’s No. 1 junior when he turned pro in 2004. Monfils, now 40 and playing in his last US Open, has won 13 titles (no majors) and has $25 million in earnings, according to the ATP Tour.
It should come as no surprise, then, that tennis’ three-headed GOAT features a Serbian (Djokovic), a Spaniard (Rafael Nadal) and a Swiss (Roger Federer).
From Federer’s first major title at the 2003 Wimbledon through Nadal’s 14 French Open titles — the most by any player at any Grand Slam event — to Djokovic’s most recent major triumph at the 2023 US Open, the GOATs have combined to win 66 Grand Slam titles (Djokovic 24, Nadal 22, Federer 20).
However, it would be wrong to assume that the GOATs’ dominance is the reason that James Blake, John Isner, Sam Querrey and Mardy Fish, the top American-born players not named Roddick, never won major titles in that era.
Players from outside the US have won Grand Slam titles in fields that included GOATs. Andy Murray (UK) won three, including the 2012 US Open. Stan Wawrinka (Switzerland) won three, including the 2016 US Open. Juan Martin del Potro (Argentina) won the 2009 US Open, defeating Nadal in the semifinals and Federer in the final. Marin Cilic (Croatia) won the 2014 US Open. Dominic Thiem (Austria) won the 2020 US Open. Daniil Medvedev (Russia) won the 2021 US Open final against Djokovic in straight sets. And Alcaraz (Spain) won his first major at the 2022 US Open.
Throw in Alcaraz’s 2023 Wimbledon crown, Ferrero’s (Spain) 2003 French Open title, Gaston Gaudio’s (Argentina) 2004 French Open triumph and Marat Safin’s (Russia) 2005 Australian Open title and that's 15 major championships won between Federer's 2003 breakthrough and Djokovic's most recent major, by non-Americans other than the GOATs.
Here’s another thing these non-American major champions have in common: We didn’t see any of them in pro tournaments when they were 15 years old.
Such was the unfortunate fate of Donald Young, a gifted left-hander from Chicago promoted in 2006 as “the future of American tennis.” Signed to multimillion-dollar endorsement deals by Nike and Head racquets, Young received wild cards to compete against men at age 15.
In March 2006, Young got a wild card into the Nasdaq 100 Open in Key Biscayne, Fla. His first-round opponent, Carlos Berlocq, was 0-7 as a pro. But Berlocq, playing against a boy, won, 6-0, 6-0. Berlocq then lost his next match to Blake, 6-0, 6-0.
Young never won a pro tournament in singles or doubles. He’s a cautionary tale about the damage that can occur when the Great American Hype Machine eats its young.
But if Shelton, Fritz, Tiafoe or any other Yank cannot end America’s US Open drought this year, they can take solace in knowing that the other Grand Slam host countries have suffered even longer.
No Frenchman has won the French Open since Yannick Noah in 1983. No Australian man has won the Aussie Open since Mark Edmondson in 1976. And no English man has won Wimbledon since Fred Perry in 1936. (Murray, the 2013 and 2016 Wimbledon champ, is from Scotland, not England.)
If an American man finally wins the US Open, it could lead to what happened from the late 1980s through the ’90s when Sampras, Agassi, Michael Chang and Jim Courier — all born 18 months apart — pushed one another to greatness and became Grand Slam champions and Hall of Famers.
One of today’s contenders must break through first. He must prove that he can conquer seven different opponents playing differing styles in best-of-five-set matches during a fortnight on hard courts. He must prove that crowds fueled by cups of Honey Deuce and screaming “U-S-A, U-S-A” can help lift his game rather than make him tight and tentative on the biggest points.
My hunch is Shelton, son of former pro Bryan Shelton who coaches him, is that player. His title last month in Montreal, on the same surface as the US Open, indicated he’s ready to do something special. There’s no better time than now.
The US contenders
• Ben Shelton, the No. 8 seed, has a blistering left-handed serve that’s particularly effective with a kick from the deuce court because it drags opponents way outside. Shelton also plays to the crowd, which New Yorkers love. He reached the Open semifinals in 2023, losing to the eventual champion Djokovic.
• Taylor Fritz, though not flashy, is the only current American man to have played in a major final, losing the 2024 US Open final to Sinner. Fritz, the No. 9 seed, has shown he can produce his best tennis at a major.
• Frances Tiafoe, seeded 12th, hypes a US Open crowd better than anyone. The Open semi-finalist in 2022 and 2024 comes into this year’s event having reached his first ATP Masters 1000 final in Cincinnati. If Big Foe is on his game, he’s a handful.
The long shots
• Learner Tien, true to his name, has a cerebral style of play. The 14th seed also has speed, a potent lefty serve, a feathery touch and Hall of Famer Michael Chang as his coach. Still only 20, Tien should continue to rise.
• Brandon Nakashima, the No. 16 seed, appeared poised for a breakthrough in 2022 when he won his only pro title in San Diego. But a left knee injury derailed him in 2023. Now he’s back, his game is solid and he’s a threat.
• Tommy Paul, seeded 20th, is having an off year after reaching the 2025 French Open quarters and rising to No. 8 in the world. But if he gets his groove back, he can’t be discounted. 🎾
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